Tuesday’s US midterm elections produced a sweeping victory for Democrats and marked a pivotal moment in American politics. Democrats flipped at least seven Senate seats from Republican control, many in historically conservative states, in a major upset and a clear rebuke of the Trump administration. Mississippi’s and Alaska’s Senate races, as of the time of writing this article, remain too close to call.
Democrats and the independents who caucus with them are projected to hold 54 Senate seats, compared with 44 for Republicans. Democrats will also gain control of the House of Representatives, flipping two dozen districts and securing a 244–155 majority (218 needed to take control of the House), with votes still being counted in 36 uncalled races. When the newly elected officials take office in January, Democrats will control both chambers of Congress. Before the election, Republicans held a 53–47 Senate majority and a 219–212 House majority.
This is a significant victory for Democrats, especially because many of the Senate seats they flipped were in deeply conservative states. Democrats gained seats in Texas, Kansas, Iowa, Ohio, Maine, South Carolina and North Carolina. Before this election, North Carolina and Iowa had not elected a Democratic senator since 2008, South Carolina since 1998, Texas since 1988, and Kansas since 1932, almost a century ago.
This shows how dissatisfied the American public is with the Trump administration’s handling of the country since coming into office for his second term. The Iran War and high prices at home significantly affected this election. An NBC exit poll found that about 63% of voters thought “taking military action against Iran” was the “wrong decision”, and 74% said it was a “crucial” or “major factor” in their decision on who to vote for in Congress. This makes sense, as historically, economic factors have played major roles in US elections. Importantly, Trump campaigned on promises of ending wars in the Middle East forever and on lowering prices, only to get involved in a war with Iran that has contributed to rising prices domestically.
The demographic breakdown of this victory is also important because Democrats gained support among Americans of many backgrounds compared with the 2024 election. Democrats performed especially well among Hispanic voters, but also gained among White voters, Female and Male voters, Black voters, Asian voters, voters in all age groups, and voters with all education backgrounds.
Despite this landslide victory, Democrats do not hold all the cards. Although they will have substantial majorities in both chambers, they lack the supermajority (67 votes in the Senate and 290 in the House when all members are present) needed to override a presidential veto. Democrats in Congress can therefore block further legislative initiatives from the Trump administration, but they cannot enact legislation Trump would veto without bipartisan support.
Nevertheless, their new majority gives Democrats considerable power. They will control congressional committees and can open investigations into Trump’s handling of the Iran war and other potential instances of corruption or abuse of power. They will have greater leverage over future appropriations and more opportunities to investigate and challenge administration policies.
Even before the election, Representative Gregory W. Meeks, a member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, introduced the bipartisan Prohibit Corrupt Russia Oil Deals Act on October 16 to block Trump’s deal with Putin to purchase and import Russian diesel. With Democrats in control of Congress, similar initiatives could become more common and have a greater likelihood of success.
Why This Matters to Europe
Europeans should view the election with cautious optimism. A Democratic-controlled Congress cannot prevent Trump from making contentious remarks about European allies or his relationships with other foreign leaders, nor does it control US troop deployments (even if it can influence them through funding appropriations decisions). It will, however, constrain him in various ways and means he will not have the same free rein he once had, although its effect on the transatlantic relationship remains uncertain.
In the short term, a Democratic Congress could provide European allies with alternative voices in Washington, though experts at Stimson caution against expecting a return to the previous transatlantic relationship. Trump will no longer have the same freedom of action, and the checks and balances built into the US political system will come into play. Democratic control of Congress also raises the possibility of impeachment, although removal from office would still require a two-thirds majority in the Senate.
The election also offers clues about the future of US politics. Devastating Republican losses in conservative strongholds suggest that Trump’s political brand and policies are deeply unpopular and point toward the possibility of a Democratic president succeeding him. This defeat may prompt Republicans to reconsider their electoral strategy and policy priorities.
Nevertheless, given the unpopularity of foreign conflicts and spending abroad, as well as the threat Russia poses to European security both through and beyond its war in Ukraine, Europe should continue to pursue strategic autonomy and assume most of the burden for its own security. The election gives European governments new congressional partners, but uncertainty about US foreign policy will remain.
What to Watch Next
- Congressional investigations into the Trump administration.
- Whether Trump contests any midterm election results.
- Legislative efforts to curb presidential power.
Sources:
Ballotpedia, CNBC, Congress, NBC, NYTimes, NYTimes, Stimson.
News from European Relations:
ERA – US Midterms, A Blue Tsunami, But Europe’s Uncertainty Remains. 05 November 2026.
