Germany’s latest state elections produced two very different winners: the AfD in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and the Left in Berlin. Both results point to a challenge for the country’s established political centre.
Germany woke up on Monday to two striking election results. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) became the strongest party with 38.2 percent, ahead of Minister-President Manuela Schwesig’s SPD on 35.5 percent. In Berlin, the Left won clearly, reaching around a quarter of the vote and more than doubling its previous result. The results are particularly painful for Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s CDU. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, it received just 4.9 percent, becoming the first CDU state branch to fail to enter a German state parliament. In Berlin, the CDU lost the election after governing with the SPD. Two very different states have therefore delivered a similar message: established governing parties are struggling to retain dissatisfied voters.
An AfD Victory Without Power
The AfD’s victory in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania is significant. With 38.2 per cent, it more than doubled its previous result and became the largest party in another eastern state. But the result also demonstrates the difference between winning an election and being able to govern. The SPD received 35.5 percent, the Left 6.5per cent, and the Greens 5.7 percent. With both the CDU and BSW narrowly failing to cross the five-per-cent threshold, the SPD, Left and Greens have enough seats for a majority. A remarkable consequence is possible: despite winning almost four in ten votes, the AfD could become the only opposition party in the new state parliament.
Other parties have continued to reject coalition cooperation with the AfD. That means the political firewall still limits the party’s ability to convert electoral strength into executive power. But the result also exposes the limits of that strategy. A firewall can prevent cooperation. It cannot explain – or reverse – why such a large share of voters chose the AfD. Schwesig’s campaign provides another lesson. She increasingly presented the election as a direct choice between her leadership and an AfD-led state. That polarisation helped the SPD remain remarkably strong despite the AfD victory, while the CDU was squeezed out of parliament entirely.
Berlin Turns Left
Berlin produced almost the opposite political result. The Left, led by Elif Eralp, emerged as the clear winner with 25.3 percent of the vote, while the previous CDU-SPD government lost its majority. Housing was central to the campaign: Berlin’s rents have nearly doubled since 2014, and the city estimates that another 211,000 homes will be needed by 2040. Eralp offered a considerably more interventionist answer than the previous government. The Left wants stronger rent controls and the socialisation of large private housing companies, building on Berlin’s 2021 referendum in which 58 percent backed such a proposal. After the election, Eralp reiterated that a government led by her would pursue socialisation.
That helps explain why the two elections should not simply be interpreted as a uniform movement towards Germany’s political “extremes”. The AfD and the Left have fundamentally different programmes, political histories and relationships with Germany’s institutions. What connects the two results is something else: voters moved away from established governing parties towards alternatives promising more fundamental change. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, that primarily benefited the AfD. In Berlin, the housing crisis helped the Left mobilise dissatisfied voters. The common denominator is therefore less ideology than the declining ability of established parties to retain voters when major problems are perceived as unresolved.
The CDU’s Two-Sided Firewall
Berlin also exposes an increasingly difficult strategic question for the CDU. Since 2018, the party has had a formal resolution rejecting coalitions and comparable forms of cooperation with both the AfD and the Left. Merz has repeatedly defended that principle, although prominent Christian Democrats have increasingly questioned whether the two parties should be treated identically.
There are genuine controversies surrounding parts of the Berlin Left, particularly over antisemitism and positions on Israel. Critics, including within the Jewish community and other political parties, have raised serious concerns about incidents and statements connected to sections of the party. Those controversies should not be dismissed.
But neither should they be automatically transferred to every part of the party or to Eralp herself. During the campaign, Eralp said antisemitism must be fought immediately, described the concerns of Berlin’s Jewish community as serious and distanced herself from a controversial performance at a Left campaign event. She has also criticised positions within her own party on Israel and the October 7 attacks.
This distinction matters for the political analysis. The CDU’s formal incompatibility resolution places the AfD and Left under the same rule for coalition purposes. That does not mean their programmes, internal currents or relationship with Germany’s constitutional order are identical. Indeed, CDU politicians themselves have increasingly debated precisely this distinction. Berlin could now make that debate more concrete. A Left-SPD-Green coalition has a majority. A CDU-Green-SPD government is another possible three-party configuration. The Greens have indicated a preference for a left-wing majority, while the CDU continues to reject cooperation with the Left. Coalition negotiations will therefore test not only who governs Berlin, but how Germany’s parties define the boundaries of political cooperation.
Why This Matters for Europe
These are state elections, but their consequences reach beyond Schwerin and Berlin. Germany is the EU’s largest member state, and Merz’s authority at home matters for his ability to pursue economic reforms and shape European debates. The results come after another major AfD success in Saxony-Anhalt and increase pressure on a CDU struggling to define an effective response. But Sunday’s elections also provide a broader European lesson. Political dissatisfaction does not move voters in only one direction. Migration, identity and economic frustration can strengthen the radical right. Housing costs, inequality and dissatisfaction with public services can generate demand for substantially more interventionist policies from the left. For Germany’s established centre, excluding political competitors is therefore only part of the challenge. The harder task is rebuilding confidence that mainstream parties can solve the problems driving voters elsewhere.
What to Watch Next
Coalition negotiations will now determine whether the election winners can translate votes into political power. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, an SPD-Left-Green government could allow Schwesig to remain minister-president despite finishing behind the AfD. In Berlin, Eralp has a potential route to the mayoralty through the SPD and Greens, although policy disagreements about socialisation of housing and the controversy over antisemitism within parts of the Left could complicate negotiations.
For Merz, the question is broader. The CDU must respond simultaneously to an AfD capable of winning state elections and to a political landscape in which excluding both the AfD and the Left can make government formation increasingly difficult. The two elections produced different winners. The challenge they pose to Germany’s political centre is increasingly the same: exclusion alone cannot replace political competition.
Sources
Reuters – Five takeaways from Germany’s regional elections. 21 September 2026.
NDR – Landtagswahl MV: AfD vor SPD – CDU ist mit 4,9 Prozent raus. 21 September 2026.
Reuters – Far-left party wins Berlin election, pledging to nationalise housing. 20 September 2026.
rbb24 – Linke-Spitzenkandidatin Eralp: Vergesellschaftung braucht Zeit. 8 September 2026.
Deutschlandfunk – Der Streit in der CDU über den Umgang mit der Linkspartei. 5 September 2026.
AI Transparency Note: Artificial intelligence was used to support research, source comparison and the structuring of this briefing. Editorial decisions, source selection and the final assessment remain subject to human review.
News from European Relations:
ERA – German State Elections Test Merz: CDU out of State Parliament. 21 September 2026.
