Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

More than four years after Russia launched its full-scale invasion, Ukraine continues to resist as the war has evolved from Moscow’s failed attempt at a rapid victory into a prolonged conflict with no political settlement in sight.

October 10, 2026

byTizian Stocker

CC BY 4.0/ © Photo by Ministry of Culture of Ukraine (Dormition Cathedral of the Kyiv Pechersk Lavra in Kyiv, Ukraine on fire following the Russian attack on 15 June 2026.)

Update (09.10.2026): Analysis: Trump and Putin agree to waive sanctions on Russian diesel, potentially funding Russia’s war in Ukraine (ISW⁠)

Update (09.10.2026): Analysis: Civilians in Russian-occupied Oleshky reportedly forced to eat dogs to survive amid severe humanitarian crisis (EUobserver⁠)

Update (08.10.2026): Analysis: Europe’s far-right surge threatens NATO defence spending commitments and continued military aid to Ukraine (POLITICO⁠)

Update (07.10.2026): Analysis: Russian mass drone and missile strikes across Ukraine kill or injure at least 135 civilians, including four children (ISW)

Update (06.10.2026): Analysis: Ukraine deploys AI-controlled machine-gun turrets against Russian jet-powered drones over Kyiv (EUobserver⁠)

Update (05.10.2026): Analysis: Russian drone strike injures Moldovan citizen for first time at Ukraine-Moldova border crossing (ISW⁠)

Update (04.10.2026): News: Kyiv bridge hit during German Chancellor’s snap visit (Rapporteur⁠)

Update (04.10.2026): Interview: EU envoy in Kyiv urges stronger air defences and hybrid war response, saying Putin ‘understands only strength’ (EUobserver⁠)

Update (03.10.2026): Analysis: Russia strikes Kyiv bridge to disrupt transport, economy and civilian life (ISW⁠)

Update (02.10.2026): Analysis: Ukraine deploys domestically produced FP-7 ballistic missile for first time (EUobserver⁠)

Update (02.10.2026): Analysis: Putin portrays European responses to Russian threats as aggression (ISW⁠)

Update (02.10.2026): Analysis: Russia governs occupied Oleshky through humanitarian decline (ISW⁠)

Update (30.09.2026): Analysis: Russia begins winter campaign targeting Ukraine’s energy security (ISW⁠)

Update (30.09.2026): Analysis: Ukraine’s war chest is running low at a critical moment (POLITICO⁠)

Update (30.09.2026): News: Russian air strikes kill three and injure seven in and around Kyiv (Reuters, MarketScreener⁠)

Update (29.09.2026): Analysis: Russian drone strikes Kyiv research institute and explodes near EU embassy (EUobserver⁠)

Update (29.09.2026): News: Zelenskyy says North Korea prepares to deploy another 10,000 troops to Russia (Reuters⁠)

Update (28.09.2026): News: Ukraine regains territory and captures POWs in frontline push (POLITICO⁠)

Update (28.09.2026): Analysis: Ukraine’s Operation Vivaldi uses deception to liberate five settlements north of Lyman (ISW⁠)

Update (28.09.2026): News: Kremlin says Ukraine is ‘paying the price’ for attacks on Russia (Reuters⁠)

Update (26.09.2026): Analysis: Ukraine’s new counteroffensive tactics could help break positional warfare and restore tactical maneuver (ISW⁠)

Update (25.09.2026): Analysis: Russia intensifies strikes on Ukraine’s data centres and telecommunications infrastructure (ISW⁠)

Update (24.09.2026): News: Russian missile attack on Kyiv kills civilians and damages residential areas (Reuters⁠)

Update (23.09.2026): Analysis: Russian tank survives 40 drone strikes, suggesting mechanised warfare could make comeback (EUobserver⁠)

Update (23.09.2026): Analysis: Kremlin rejects proposed energy ceasefire and reiterates maximalist war demands (ISW⁠)

Update (23.09.2026): Analysis: Kremlin uses sham elections to manufacture legitimacy in occupied Ukraine (ISW⁠)

Update (22.09.2026): News: Ukraine races to counter new jet-powered Russian drones (BBC⁠)

Update (22.09.2026): Analysis: Russian Ministry of Defense falsely claims encirclement of Dobropillya as part of cognitive warfare campaign (ISW⁠)

Update (22.09.2026): Analysis: Western tech helps funnel foreign recruits into Russia’s war (POLITICO⁠)

Update (21.09.2026): Analysis: Ukraine’s largest Moscow air raid overwhelms defences and hits key oil refinery (EUobserver⁠)

Update (20.09.2026): Analysis: Russia secretly plans to massively expand kamikaze drone production (POLITICO⁠)

Update (20.09.2026): News: Ukrainian drones hit Moscow oil refinery, killing two (Reuters⁠)

Update (19.09.2026): Analysis: Russian Ministry of Defense exaggerates battlefield gains ahead of UN General Assembly (ISW⁠)

Update (18.09.2026): Analysis: Tusk reveals classified estimates of Ukrainian battlefield casualties (EUobserver⁠)

Update (18.09.2026): Analysis: Kremlin denies post-election mobilization amid fears of public backlash (ISW⁠)

Update (18.09.2026): Podcast: Ukraine faces mounting pressure ahead of wartime winter (ECFR⁠)

Update (17.09.2026): Analysis: Russia pushes to capture Dobropillia before autumn conditions worsen (EUobserver⁠)

Update (17.09.2026): Analysis: Russia continues deporting Ukrainian female political prisoners to distant penal colonies (ISW⁠)

Update (17.09.2026): News: Russia targets passenger trains to undermine Ukraine’s economy and morale (POLITICO⁠)

Update (16.09.2026): Analysis: Ukrainian forces reportedly advance beyond Zherebets River (EUobserver⁠)

Update (16.09.2026): Analysis: Putin frames Duma elections as referendum on Ukraine war (ISW⁠)

Update (15.09.2026): Analysis: Ukraine hits record number of Russian refineries as Trump pushes energy ceasefire (EUobserver⁠)

Update (15.09.2026): Analysis: Ukraine’s Operation Vivaldi disrupts Russia’s Fortress Belt encirclement (ISW⁠)

Update (14.09.2026): Analysis: Ukraine races to counter Russia’s jet-powered drones (POLITICO⁠)

Update (14.09.2026): Analysis: Zelensky reiterates readiness for mutual energy strikes moratorium (ISW⁠)

Update (13.09.2026): Analysis: Russian strikes near Polish border signal growing escalation (ISW⁠)

Update (12.09.2026): Analysis: Ukraine disrupts Russia’s Donbas offensive plans (ISW⁠)

Update (13.09.2026): Analysis: Anthropic AI joins Ukraine war after Russian exploitation (EUobserver⁠)

Update (11.09.2026): Analysis: Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment (ISW⁠)

Update (10.09.2026): Analysis: Russia spent over €110bn on Ukraine war so far in 2026 (EUobserver⁠)

Update (10.09.2026): Analysis: Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment (ISW⁠)

Update (10.09.2026): Analysis: Russian Occupation Update (ISW⁠)

Update (10.09.2026): Analysis: Zelenskyy gambles on pressure to force Putin into peace talks (POLITICO⁠)

Update (09.09.2026): Analysis: Russia’s claimed Kharkiv encirclement lacks evidence (EUobserver⁠)

Update (09.09.2026): News: Zelenskyy’s plane nearly hit by drone en route to Oslo (Euronews⁠)

Quick Brief:

Russia launched its full-scale invasion on 24 February 2022, expecting rapid military gains, but its attempt to seize Kyiv failed as Ukrainian forces resisted

The failed initial offensive developed into a long war of attrition, with Russia occupying Ukrainian territory while Ukraine continues to defend itself and strike Russian military and economic targets

Winter has repeatedly intensified pressure on civilians: Russia has systematically targeted Ukraine’s electricity and heating infrastructure, causing widespread outages and disruption

Diplomacy has not ended the war: renewed US-led efforts have so far failed to bridge fundamental differences between Moscow and Kyiv, while Russian military operations continue

Sources: UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine⁠, Reuters⁠, Associated Press⁠

Transparency Note: Use of AI

26/10/10Education PolicyInside EuropeÉdouard GeffrayFiresFranceProperty DamageRiot PoliceSchoolsStudent ProtestsUnrest

French Student Protests Escalate Nationwide

High school protests that began near Paris in late September have spread across France, as demands for better education conditions increasingly collide with violence and a tougher government response.

→Update (09.10.2026): News: French student protesters vow to continue demonstrations after securing their first concession from the government (Reuters⁠)

→Update (08.10.2026): Podcast: Are student protests in France actually being fuelled by Mélenchon’s party LFI? (EUobserver)

→Update (08.10.2026): News: French school blockades continue despite PM Sébastien Lecornu’s vague promises to address student demands (Reuters⁠)

→Update (08.10.2026): News: French PM Sébastien Lecornu denies ordering police to confront student protesters (Rapporteur⁠)

→Update (07.10.2026): Podcast: French government holds crisis talks over student protests (BBC⁠)

→Update (06.10.2026): News: French PM Sébastien Lecornu condemns violence at student protests and promises a ‘timeout for democracy’ (RFI⁠)

→Update (06.10.2026): News: France braces for nationwide school blockades and street protests (Reuters⁠)

→Update (06.10.2026): News: Mélenchon doubles down on support for French student protests despite violent clashes (POLITICO⁠)

→Update (05.10.2026): News: French Human Rights League warns police response to school protests reflects broader erosion of rule of law (RFI⁠)

→Update (05.10.2026): News: Teenager loses hand during confrontation between French school protesters and police (BBC⁠)

→Update (03.10.2026): News: French students call for ‘act three’ as school protests seek to maintain momentum (RFI⁠)

→Update (03.10.2026): News: Protests disrupt more than 730 French schools as students call for new rallies (RFI⁠)

→Update (02.10.2026): Interview: Student leader defends France’s school protests against claims of political manipulation (RadioFrance⁠)

→Quick Brief:

→Students are demanding more teachers and funding, smaller classes and better school buildings, while also raising concerns about the university admissions system Parcoursup

→More than 1,000 of France’s roughly 3,700 high schools were affected by actions on 1 October, while around 400 were closed the following day

→Clashes, fires and property damage have accompanied parts of the movement, prompting the government to deploy specialist riot police

→The government says the protests have partly shifted into “urban violence.” Education Minister Édouard Geffray is meeting student and parent representatives, while authorities seek to contain the unrest

→Sources:⁠ Le Monde⁠, BBC News⁠

→Transparency Note: Use of AI

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26/10/10Climate PolicyGeopoliticsInternational RightTransatlantic RelationsDonald TrumpEuropean ParliamentRules-Based Internatrional OrderSatireSymbolThe Orange Plague

Trump Satire Comes to EU Parliament

A gold-covered sculpture depicting Donald Trump naked was exhibited at the European Parliament in Strasbourg, using satire to challenge his climate policies and approach to international power.

→Danish artist Jens Galschiøt’s 2.6-metre sculpture, “The Orange Plague,” depicts Trump sitting on a smaller man’s shoulders, holding a golf club and scales

→Danish MEP Per Clausen of the Left group hosted the exhibition. It was an MEP-led initiative, not an official parliamentary position on Trump

→Inspired by “The Emperor’s New Clothes,” the work criticises what the artist describes as threats to climate action, democratic values and the rules-based international order

→Galschiøt distributed miniature versions as protest symbols. The sculpture had previously appeared at COP30 in Brazil and at demonstrations supporting Greenland in Copenhagen

→Sources: Euronews, Jens Galschiøt, Per Clausen’s Office

→Transparency Note: Use of AI

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26/10/10DiplomacyEurope in the worldHuman RightsInternational RightGenocideInternational Criminal CourtIsraelNobel CommitteeNorwayPeaceUnited Nations

Pillay Wins Nobel Peace Prize

Former UN human rights chief Navi Pillay has won the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, recognising her work for international justice as legal institutions face growing political pressure.

→On 9 October, the Norwegian Nobel Committee awarded the prize to the South African jurist for promoting peace and international law

→Pillay served at the Rwanda tribunal and the International Criminal Court, then as UN High Commissioner for Human Rights from 2008 to 2014

→Her work helped establish that rape and sexual violence can constitute genocide. The committee highlighted her contribution to accountability for international crimes

→The award also drew controversy: Israel condemned it following the Gaza genocide findings of the UN inquiry she chaired. The committee’s citation did not single out Israel or any government

→Sources: BBC News, Nobel Committee, Reuters

→Transparency Note: Use of AI

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26/10/10Economic PolicyInside EuropeHousing CrisisMaricarmen AbascalMatridPedro SánchezProtestsSpain

Spanish PM Sánchez Calls for Snap Elections for 29 November, Maricarmen is dead

An 87-year-old Madrid pensioner whose eviction triggered protests can return to her longtime home, as her case adds pressure on Spain’s government to address the country’s wider housing crisis.

→Update (09.10.2026): Podcast: Sánchez’s snap election gamble raises questions about Spain’s political future and its implications for Europe (ECFR)

→Update (08.10.2026): News: Maricarmen, the 87-year-old woman whose eviction sparked major protests in Spain, dies in hospital (Euronews)

→Update (08.10.2026): News: Spain’s far-right Vox, led by Santiago Abascal, gains ground in election polls (POLITICO⁠)

→Update (07.10.2026): News: Spanish unions call general strike for November 11, weeks before snap parliamentary election (Reuters⁠)

→Update (06.10.2026): Analysis: Spanish election threatens political balance in Brussels as Sánchez’s Socialists face potential losses (POLITICO⁠)

→Update (05.10.2026): Analysis: Sánchez bets on housing agenda to keep far right out of government in Spain’s snap election (EUobserver⁠)

→Update (05.10.2026): News: Sánchez calls snap Spanish election for November 29 (POLITICO⁠)

→Update (03.10.2026): News: Tens of thousands protest across Spain over deepening housing crisis (The Guardian⁠)

→Update (02.10.2026): News: Sánchez loses key housing crisis vote after eviction of 87-year-old woman (BBC⁠)

→Update (30.09.2026): Podcast: Did Spain’s government address protesters’ demands on housing? (EUobserver⁠)

→Update (29.09.2026): News: Spain moves to stem housing protests (Rapporteur⁠)

→Quick Brief:

→Maricarmen Abascal was evicted on 23 September from the Madrid apartment where she had lived for more than 70 years, turning her case into a symbol of Spain’s housing crisis

→The eviction prompted protests in Madrid, amid wider concerns over rising rents and access to affordable housing

→The property owner has agreed to let Abascal return under a new eight-year rental contract, with rent capped at 30% of her net income. She still has to approve the agreement formally

→Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez explicitly referred to Maricarmen’s case while calling for parliamentary support for new housing measures aimed at strengthening tenant protection and addressing Spain’s housing crisis

→Sources: BBC⁠, Reuters⁠, El País⁠

→Transparency Note: Use of AI

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26/10/10ChinaEconomic PolicySecurityCompetivenessDeficitEuropean CommissionTrade

EU Trade Chief Šefčovič Heads to China, Trade War with China possible?

The EU trade deficit with China grows higher every day. As Germany and France take harder stance toward China, how will China react?

→Update (10.10.2026): Analysis: EU faces mounting pressure from China amid escalating trade tensions (Rapporteur⁠)

→Update (09.10.2026): News: EU and China reach understanding to curb Chinese hybrid car exports to Europe (POLITICO⁠)

→Update (08.10.2026): Analysis: EU trade chief Maroš Šefčovič faces Brussels’ limited leverage in trade negotiations (EUobserver)

→Update (07.10.2026): Analysis: Europe faces three tests in reducing dependence on China and countering Chinese economic coercion (ECFR⁠)

→Update (06.10.2026): News: EU trade chief heads to China with low expectations(EUobserver⁠), Rapporteur)

→Update (05.10.2026): News: Merz and Macron push tougher EU trade response to China (POLITICO⁠)

→Update (04.10.2026): News: Britain expected to impose tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (Reuters⁠)

→Update (01.10.2026): Commentary: EU unity and leverage will determine whether it can stand up to China on trade (Carnegie Europe⁠)

→Update (30.09.2026): News: China vows response if EU introduces measures targeting Chinese trade (Reuters⁠)

→Update (29.09.2026): News: EU eyes tariffs on Chinese goods with new trade weapon (Rapporteur⁠)

→Update (28.09.2026): Analysis: EU-China trade showdown increasingly appears inevitable (Internationale Politik Quarterly⁠)

→Update (18.09.2026): News: Beijing urges EU to weaken ‘Made in Europe’ industrial bill (EUobserver⁠)

→Update (17.09.2026): Analysis: EU firms redesign supply chains amid geopolitical risks (EIB⁠)

→Update (17.09.2026): News: EU asks China to voluntarily limit hybrid car exports (Financial Times⁠)

→Update (16.09.2026): News: Von der Leyen warns EU-China trade deficit has hit ‘tipping point’ (POLITICO⁠)

→Update (15.09.2026): Analysis: European businesses caught between US-China trade and tech war (POLITICO⁠)

→Update (11.09.2026): News from China: Chinese experts warn EU protectionism cannot fix industrial woes (Global Times⁠)

→Update (09.09.2026): News: EU spirits exports squeezed by US-China trade tensions (Euractiv⁠)

→Update (08.09.2026): News: EU warns China to buy more European goods or risk trade war (Euractiv⁠)

→Update (08.09.2026): News: China’s exports accelerate on autos and high-tech goods (Euronews⁠)

→Update (07.09.2026): News: Commission proposes anti-China EU procurement rules (Euractiv⁠)

→Update (02.09.2026): Interview: Šefčovič warns China of harsher measures by October (YouTube)

→Update (02.09.2026): News: Think tank urges UK-EU cooperation against China (POLITICO)

→Update (01.09.2026): Analysis: EU split over courting Chinese factories (EUobserver)

→Update (31.08.2026): News: EU seeks to curb Chinese exports (POLITICO)

→Update (31.08.2026): Commentary from China: Europe risks miscalculating a trade war with China (Global Times⁠)

→Update (31.08.2026): News: Hoekstra says Beijing weaponised clean-tech dominance (Euractiv)

→Update (31.08.2026): Interview: Hoekstra says China isn’t playing by trade rules (YouTube)

→Update (27.08.2026): Dutch think tank urges tougher China tariffs (EUobserver)

→Update (27.08.2026): Von der Leyen warns China on trade (Euractiv)

→Quick Brief:

→The EU recorded a €21.8 billion goods deficit in Q2 (April–June) 2026, after a €6.7 billion surplus in Q1 (January–March)

→The main driver was energy: the deficit in energy products widened to €101.1 billion

→Imports rose by €63.4 billion, considerably more than the €34.9 billion increase in exports

→The EU’s trade deficit with China reached €103.3 billion in Q2, adding to concerns over European industrial competitiveness

→Sources: Eurostat, Euractiv

→Transparency Note: Use of AI

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26/10/09National PoliticsCenter-leftCoalitionElectoral lawElectoral reformEU-Ukraine Drone AllianceGiorgia MeloniItalyOpposition

Italy’s new electoral law could benefit Meloni’s political foes

The new electoral law adopted by the Italian parliament was aimed at strengthening Meloni's government coalition but can also benefit the country's center-left opposition.

→On October 8 the Italian parliament approved an electoral law that gives a parliamentary majority bonus to the largest alliance if it wins more than 42% of the vote

→The reform's aimed to reinforce Meloni's governing coalition but analysts think it can also benefit her center-left foes

→Opposition leaders Elly Schlein and Giuseppe Conte disagree over who should lead their alliance, with the latter calling for primaries

→Analysts warn that leadership battles and policy differences could undermine opposition unity and reduce its chances of defeating Meloni

→Source: Reuters

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26/10/09Economic PolicyMonetary PolicySecurityBudgetCouncil of the EUEU BorrowingEuropean CommissionGeneral Affairs CouncilMultiannual Financial Framework

EU Budget Battle Intensifies

Six fiscally conservative EU countries are demanding major cuts to Brussels’ proposed €2 trillion budget for 2028–2034, setting up a difficult fight over Europe’s future spending priorities. The 27 member states want to have a decision by the end of the year.

→Update (08.10.2026): Opinion: Cut the EU budget and we all lose (EUobserver)

→Update (08.10.2026): News: EU countries brace for €100B-€200B smaller budget (Politico)

→Update (08.10.2026): Analysis: EU’s 2028-2034 budget proposal creates new conflicts over spending priorities and financial burden-sharing (SWP⁠)

→Update (08.10.2026): News: EU auditors warn of major budget shortfall unless the EU introduces new sources of revenue (Rapporteur⁠)

→Update (07.10.2026): News: Iran war shock expected to shrink next EU budget (Rapporteur⁠)

→Update (06.10.2026): News: Von der Leyen rebukes EU budget frugals over demands for deeper spending cuts (Rapporteur⁠)

→Update (29.09.2026): News: EU governments brace for €100 billion cut to long-term budget proposal (POLITICO⁠)

→Update (29.09.2026): News: EU cuts funding for women’s rights groups amid wider budget reductions (EUobserver⁠)

→Update (29.09.2026): News: MEPs back €47 billion in new Erasmus funding as frugal states seek EU budget cuts (EUobserver⁠)

→Update (29.09.2026): Commentary: EU budget cuts risk hurting member states’ own regions (EUobserver⁠)

→Update (29.09.2026): News: EU leaders battle over budget as Parliament prepares resistance (Rapporteur⁠)

→Update (25.09.2026): News: 12 countries oppose French push for EU defence preference (Euractiv⁠)

→Update (23.09.2026): News: EU governments consider cutting development aid by up to 40 percent (EUobserver⁠)

→Update (23.09.2026): News: Greece proposes EU-wide telecoms levy to fund budget and high-tech investment (Euractiv⁠)

→Update (22.09.2026): News: France opposes cuts to foreign aid in next EU budget (POLITICO⁠)

→Update (22.09.2026): News: Results of the General Affairs Council (Irish EU Presidency⁠)

→Update (22.09.2026): News: France opposes cuts to foreign aid in next EU budget (POLITICO⁠)

→Update (22.09.2026): News: Germany rejects Costa’s push for new EU budget taxes (POLITICO⁠)

→Update (22.09.2026): News: EU ministers meet in Brussels for General Affairs Council (Council of the EU⁠)

→Update (21.09.2026): Analysis: EU budget could strengthen rule of law safeguards but member states may blunt reforms (CER⁠)

→Update (21.09.2026): News: Costa says EU budget needs new taxes governments are not already raising (POLITICO⁠)

→Update (18.09.2026): News: Germany and Spain go head-to-head in EU budget fight (POLITICO⁠)

→Update (17.09.2026): News: MEPs deadlocked over CAP’s place in next EU budget (Euractiv⁠)

→Update (15.09.2026): News: Metsola urges Europe’s political centre to hold against extremes (Euractiv⁠)

→Update (14.09.2026): News: EU plans cuts to staff and salaries in next long-term budget (POLITICO⁠)

→Update (14.09.2026): News: EU countries split over scale of long-term budget cuts (Euractiv⁠)

→Update (09.09.2026): News: Germany calls for hundreds of billions in EU budget cuts (Reuters⁠)

→Update (09.09.2026): News: Costa says new EU taxes would reduce national contributions (POLITICO⁠)

→Update (08.09.2026): News: France backs business tax to fund EU budget (Euractiv⁠)

→Update (07.09.2026): News: Le Pen backs tobacco retailers against EU tax hikes (Euractiv⁠)

→Update (07.09.2026): News: Ireland secures EU tax deal on carbon imports and e-waste (POLITICO⁠)

→Update (04.09.2026): News: Spain urges EU climate adaptation fund and binding targets (Reuters⁠)

→Update (04.09.2026): Commentary: EU budget could loosen China’s grip on critical raw materials (Euronews)

→Update (03.09.2026): News: EU budget negotiators criticise frugal states over cuts (EUobserver)

→Update (03.09.2026): Interview: Lithuania says eastern flank needs must shape EU budget (Euractiv)

→Update (02.09.2026): News: Spain worried by EU budget debate (Euractiv)

→Update (02.09.2026): News: EU budget camps remain deadlocked (EUobserver)

→Update (31.08.2026): News: Ireland seeks to break EU budget deadlock (POLITICO)

→Update (27.08.2026): Europe’s defence promise meets budget reality (ECFR)

→Quick Brief:

→Germany, Denmark, the Netherlands, Austria, Finland and Sweden want cuts of several hundred billion euros

→The European Commission has proposed a nearly €2 trillion seven-year budget for 2028–2034

→The six still want priority spending on defence, competitiveness, migration and European sovereignty

→They reject new joint EU borrowing and demand cuts across spending areas as national budgets face consolidation

→Sources: Euractiv, Reuters, Council of the EU

→Transparency Note: Use of AI

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26/10/09Inside EuropeSecurityUKAndy BurnhamCritical InfrastructureEuropean DefenseEuropean UnionFriedrich MerzHybrid ThreatsKensington TreatyRussiaSpaceUkraine

UK and Germany Ratify Kensington Treaty

Britain and Germany have launched a partnership against cyberattacks and sabotage, strengthening European security cooperation as Prime Minister Andy Burnham seeks closer EU ties.

→On 8 October, Burnham met Chancellor Friedrich Merz in Berlin. They completed ratification of the Kensington Treaty, signed in July 2025

→The new partnership will strengthen information sharing and coordinated responses to hybrid threats, particularly from Russia, while protecting critical infrastructure

→Burnham expressed solidarity following the attempted Russian drone attack at Leipzig airport. Both leaders reaffirmed support for Ukraine and continued pressure on Moscow

→Cooperation also covers technology, space and industry. Burnham called for a stronger UK-EU partnership ahead of this year’s summit, without announcing an agreement on EU membership

→Sources: BBC News, UK Government, German Federal Government

→Transparency Note: Use of AI

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26/10/09Inside EuropeNational PoliticsAfDBerlinCDUFriedrich MerzGermanyLeft PartyMecklenburg-Western Pomerania

German State Elections: CDU out of state parliament; left-wing mayor in Berlin incoming?

Voters in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania head to the polls on 20 September, putting Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s CDU under renewed pressure two weeks after the AfD’s breakthrough in Saxony-Anhalt.

→Update (08.10.2026): Berlin's Left Party, SPD and Greens agree exploratory coalition talks (Reuters)

→Update (22.09.2026): Analysis: Merz faces dilemma over whether to redraft or defend Germany’s economic reforms (POLITICO⁠)

→Update (22.09.2026): Commentary: Germany’s political crisis raises a new question for Europe (Euractiv⁠)

→Update (21.09.2026): News: Merz vows to keep coalition together for Germany’s ‘democratic future’ (BBC⁠)

→Update (21.09.2026): Analysis: Germany’s political centre under pressure (European Relations⁠)

→Update (20.09.2026): News: Merz vows to keep fighting AfD after far-right victory in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, CDU falls out of state parliament in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (POLITICO⁠)

→Update (20.09.2026): News: Merz calls CDU’s worst postwar state election result a ‘disaster’ but vows to continue reforms (Reuters⁠)

→Update (20.09.2026): News: AfD edges SPD in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania as Berlin swings left and CDU suffers losses in both states (Euractiv⁠)

→Quick Brief:

→Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania vote on the same day, electing new state parliaments in the latest major tests of Germany’s shifting political landscape

→In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the AfD is leading while Merz’s CDU is polling around 6%, putting it at risk of a historically weak result and potentially even missing the 5% threshold

→In Berlin, the Left Party leads the race, while the AfD has also gained support. Housing shortages and high rents have emerged as major issues for voters

→The elections come after the AfD won 43.8% in Saxony-Anhalt on 6 September, intensifying pressure on Merz and the established parties’ refusal to form coalitions with the AfD

→Sources: Reuters⁠, Federal Returning Officer⁠, Euractiv

→Transparency Note: Use of AI

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26/10/09Education PolicyInside EuropeArrestsBelgiumGathering RestrictionsLiègeProtestsWallonia

Wallonia’s Education Protests Trigger Restrictions

Students and school pupils across Wallonia are protesting rising education costs and reforms, while unrest in Liège has prompted sweeping restrictions on public gatherings.

→Hundreds have demonstrated in Liège and other cities in Wallonia. Protesters demand affordable education, better learning conditions and sufficient teachers

→Standard higher-education fees have risen from €835 to €1,194 this academic year, with income-based reductions and exemptions

→Police reported 107 arrests in Liège since 1 October, including 80 administrative detentions. Following violence and property damage, gatherings exceeding three people are restricted until 16 October, with exceptions

→French protests have encouraged the movement, but Belgian grievances predate them. Demonstrations in Mons remained peaceful, contrasting with unrest in Liège

→Sources: Reuters, Fédération Wallonie-Bruxelles, Qu4tre, Télé MB

→Transparency Note: Use of AI

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26/10/08European GovernanceMiddle East RelationsBritainEuropean UnionIrelandIsraelSanctionsSettlersWest Bank

The EU and Sanctions on Violent Israeli Settlers

Amid rising settler violence in the West Bank, the European Union has begun taking limited action against extremist Israeli settlers while internal divisions still constrain tougher measures.

→Update 08.09.2026: Britain’s east Jerusalem consulate is downgraded (AP)

→Update (23.09.2026): News: Israeli bond sales halted across EU in de facto €2.2bn sanction (EUobserver⁠)

→Update (14.09.2026): News: Israeli rights group B'Tselem accuses Israel of dismantling Palestinian existence in West Bank (RFI⁠)

→Update (08.09.2026): Analysis: Britons back Israeli settlement trade ban by more than two to one (ECFR⁠)

→Update (08.09.2026): News: Israel closes British consulate in East Jerusalem over settlement trade ban (Reuters⁠)

→Update (08.09.2026): News: Eleven European countries and Canada sanction Israeli settlement products (Le Monde⁠)

→Update (08.09.2026): News: France and Canada join UK sanctions on Israeli settlements (POLITICO⁠)

→Update (08.09.2026): News: UK plans trade restrictions on West Bank settlements (BBC News⁠)

→Update (30.08.2026): Interview: Irish MEP says trade is EU’s only leverage over Israel (EUobserver)

→Update (28.08.2026): Commentary: EU favours reforms over pressure on Israel (EUobserver)

→Update (July 09, 2026): EU pitches trade ban with Israeli settlements (Euractiv)

→Update (July 08, 2026): Ireland passes bill banning goods from Israeli settlements (Euractiv)

→Update (June 18, 2026): Israel cuts ‘all contact’ with Kaja Kallas over apartheid comments (Euractiv)

→Update (June 16, 2026): Kallas' plan to punish Israel rejected by the Commission (Euractiv)

→Update (June 15, 2026): Kallas said she will ask the European Commission to propose further restrictive measures on trade against illegal Israeli settlements (Euractiv)

→May 11, 2026:

→Sanctions reflect rising settlement violence and humanitarian crises in the Palestinian territories

→Hungary’s new government ended the veto blocking them

→Stronger trade sanctions were not agreed upon

→Critics say the measures remain limited despite rising West Bank violence

→Source: The Guardian

→Here is a commentary by ECFR on the topic

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26/10/08European LawHuman RightsMigrationAsylumEuropean CommissionEuropean ParliamentReturn Hubs

EU Agrees on ‘Return Hubs’ for Rejected Asylum Seekers

The EU reached a provisional agreement (01.06.2026) allowing member states to transfer rejected asylum seekers to return centres in third countries outside the bloc, marking a significant tightening of European migration policy.

→Update (08.10.2026): Analysis: EU return hubs raise concerns over human rights protections and compliance with international law (Euronews⁠)

→Update (02.10.2026): News: EU ministers back return hubs and explore tougher measures against irregular migration (DW⁠)

→Update (28.09.2026): News: EU ministers advance return-hub plans despite falling irregular border arrivals (EUobserver⁠)

→Update (26.09.2026): News: European ministers discuss stronger border controls and fast-track migrant returns (AP⁠)

→Update (June 24, 2026): EU countries eye setting up migrant ‘return hubs’ in Rwanda and Uzbekistan (Politico)

→June 03, 2026:

→Agreement permits creation of “return hubs” in non-EU countries for rejected asylum seekers

→Migrants could be transferred to countries with which they have no personal connection, provided agreements exist with host states

→New rules aim to increase deportation rates, as only about 20% of people ordered to leave the EU currently do so

→Human rights groups have warned that offshore return centres could create serious legal and humanitarian risks and weaken protections for migrants

→Sources: DW, Reuters

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