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US Midterms: Europe’s Uncertainty Remains

The US midterms could change congressional majorities, while Europe remains exposed to uncertainty over American security commitments, funding and trade policy.

Update (22.10.2026): Commentary: Trump’s proposed deals with Russia raise questions over Europe’s role and Ukraine’s sovereignty (ECFR⁠)

Quick Brief:

Congressional powers: The 3 November elections determine control of Congress. New majorities could strengthen oversight, while the president retains substantial foreign-policy authority

Ukraine and defence: Delays or withholding of approved US funding complicate European planning for Ukraine, security and development assistance

Trade relations: US tariffs remain a source of transatlantic tension, with Russian energy imports creating additional exposure to American pressure

European preparedness: The report identifies contingency funding, reduced Russian energy dependence and coordinated trade responses as ways to manage continued uncertainty

Sources: ECFR, US Government Accountability Office, USAGov

Transparency Note: Prepared with AI assistance.

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