EU’s identity crisis
Since the end of the Second World War, Europe has rarely acted as an autonomous global power. Embedded in a US-led security architecture and later confronted with the rapid rise of China, the European Union now faces a renewed challenge: defining its strategic role in an increasingly competitive international system. Although the current situation makes it historically challenging for Europe to regain its full autonomy and evolve into an equal actor to the current world leaders – the United States of America and China – there are still several strategic areas where the EU has opportunities to strengthen its position. But which indicators suggest that Europe has weakened as a global autonomous actor relative to its competitors? We can delve into four key aspects.
(1) The first – and most currently revealed – indicator is the exposed energy dependency on external partners. The Russia–Ukraine conflict highlighted the vulnerability of the European Union’s energy sector, as approximately 60% of the EU’s gross available energy is imported from outside the European Union. This number indicates that Europe is highly vulnerable to energy attacks, which directly impact industrial competitiveness, household and social stability, and even the macroeconomy and public finances.
(2) Secondly, the European Union is falling behind in the race for technology, which predicts long-term dependency on external partners who lead this race. Technology has become part of our everyday lives, and its effect on crucial sectors like the military, the financial sector, and even at the political level on policy making, regulations, and governing.
(3) Thirdly, the European Union’s geopolitical position is constrained by the absence of credible autonomous military capabilities. While most EU member states are part of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation and benefit from collective defence arrangements, the Union itself remains structurally dependent on U.S. hard power for deterrence and high-intensity crisis management. This security asymmetry reinforces a persistent imbalance within the transatlantic relationship and limits the EU’s ability to exercise fully independent strategic judgment. Without the capacity to project and sustain military power on its own, the European Union struggles to shape security outcomes in its immediate neighbourhood, weakening its broader claim to geopolitical agency. 
(4) The fourth most important aspect is the European Union’s shift from ‘agenda setter’ to ‘agenda follower’, over the past several decades. All the previously mentioned aspects gradually pushed the EU towards a less powerful position, where other global major actors (U.S, China) often lead key geopolitical developments, and set the international agenda for everyone, leaving the EU to respond rather than lead. By becoming a more ‘agenda-follower’, the EU gradually diminished its capacity to shape the international arena.
The need for a new field to control
As both China and the US dominate most critical agenda-setting sectors (military power and economic leverage, among others), the European Union must find a new field where it can become a leader and reestablish its position as a global leader. Before analysing the European Union’s current position, it is crucial to describe what an agenda-setting power means in this article. Agenda-setting power is the ability to shape the rules, standards, and frameworks within which other actors must operate. The green transition, in particular, represents a promising arena wherein the EU can test or rebuild its capacity as a global agenda-setter. The Green transition remains a non-hegemonic field: several actors are involved, yet it has no genuine leader. China and the Gulf states are significant players, but neither have assumed the role of a committed role of a committed, solutions-oriented leader capable of addressing the challenges economies face.
The green transition represents not only an environmental agenda, but a structural reconfiguration of global industrial power. The shift toward renewable energy, electrification, battery storage, hydrogen infrastructure, and smart grids is reshaping supply chains, technological standards, and investment flows worldwide. In this emerging landscape, influence will belong not merely to those who innovate, but to those who define the regulatory frameworks and market rules governing the transition.
For the European Union, this presents a strategic opportunity. Unlike military power, where scale and force projection dominate, or digital technology, where American and Chinese firms lead, the green transition remains a contested and partially unstructured domain. Here, regulatory capacity, standard-setting authority, and coordinated industrial policy can translate directly into geopolitical leverage. If the EU succeeds in shaping sustainability standards and pushes for global adoption, financing mechanisms, and cross-border energy frameworks, it can transform environmental ambition into agenda-setting power.
Internal challenges
Based on the current situation, the biggest challenge that is holding back the European Union from fulfilling its potential and becoming a global agenda-setter in the light of green transition is the lack of internal consensus. There are several fault lines among EU member states about how to treat the green transition. Usually, the object of the disagreement is not the green transition itself, but its importance. Several European leaders disagree on how deeply green transition and renewable energy should be integrated into the European energy strategy, and how other possible energy sources should be integrated into the European energy mix. Some countries are aiming to deepen their dependency on nuclear energy sources, while others are aiming to rely more on renewable energy sources such as wind, water, or green hydrogen. As long as the European Union lacks consensus on this matter, the possibility of becoming an agenda-setter actor will remain only an idea. The internal consensus is the first test for geopolitical credibility.
Africa as a strategic partner
In the past couple of years, several European Union member states have begun to cooperate with African countries on green transition and renewable energy projects. Germany, Spain, and Italy have positioned themselves at the forefront of European efforts to shape discussions and implement projects across the southern neighbourhood. These projects are all targeting goals, strongly connecting to energy diversification goals, helping these countries to diversify their energy mix, and integrate more renewable energy. Based on the lead by these countries, other European countries should start stronger cooperation with African countries, and support the European Union’s position in this matter. Africa is a great partner for these projects, since, first of all, several countries are geographically close to the European Union, which decreases the supply chain security threats, and secondly, these countries from Africa are also in need of a stronger pillar for their economy, which can help them strengthen their position in the global economy. A mutually beneficial agreement could significantly advance the strategic, economic, and security development of both regions by aligning long-term energy interests with broader geopolitical objectives. Beyond the material gains, such a framework would also offer the European Union a concrete opportunity to test its capacity to operate as an agenda-setting actor, allowing it to evaluate which institutional, financial, and diplomatic instruments still require refinement in order to consolidate this emerging role.
Final takeaway on the European Union’s identity crisis
The European Union, as a political entity seeking greater strategic autonomy, currently faces a structural identity challenge in an increasingly bipolar international system. Its relative geopolitical erosion in key domains — energy security, technological competitiveness, agenda-setting capacity, and independent military capability — stresses the extent to which the Union remains vulnerable within the contemporary global order. Since the European Union lacks hard power dominance, they need to find a gap that could be filled by it, and where the Union can become an agenda-setter global power once again. Green transition offers a great opportunity for the EU to test its capabilities in the agenda-setter role, while at the same time, not requiring strong military power to achieve the goals. However, the European Union member states still must overcome the challenge of international consensus, which they continue to lack. This is a crucial element, since without a strong and unified European standing point, geopolitical credibility is contentious. Once a domestic consensus is reached, the EU can translate its green ambitions into concrete partnership projects with the African countries, built on allowing the Union to demonstrate its ability as a credible agenda-setting power beyond its borders
