On 4 October, Merz visited Kyiv and announced around €1 billion in additional military support, alongside €350 million for Ukraine’s energy infrastructure
Merz argued that Ukraine’s defence protects Germany and Europe, warning that Russia would eventually turn its war machine against them if it were not stopped
He warned that a German government unable to meet its responsibilities would have far-reaching consequences for Europe, pledging to keep his administration stable and maintain support for Ukraine
Politically, this frames his government’s stability as a strategic European responsibility, adding a security dimension to his call for coalition unity
Sources: German Federal Government, Tagesschau, Tagesschau
Transparency Note: Use of AI
More Quick Briefs:
·Economic Policy·Monetary Policy·Security·Budget·Council of the EU·EU Borrowing·European Commission·General Affairs Council·Multiannual Financial Framework
·Economic Policy·Monetary Policy·Security·Budget·Council of the EU·EU Borrowing·European Commission·General Affairs Council·Multiannual Financial Framework
EU Budget Battle Intensifies ↗︎
Six fiscally conservative EU countries are demanding major cuts to Brussels’ proposed €2 trillion budget for 2028–2034, setting up a difficult fight over Europe’s future spending priorities. The 27 member states want to have a decision by the end of the year.
→Update (06.10.2026): News: Von der Leyen rebukes EU budget frugals over demands for deeper spending cuts (Rapporteur)
→Update (29.09.2026): News: EU governments brace for €100 billion cut to long-term budget proposal (POLITICO)
→Update (29.09.2026): News: EU cuts funding for women’s rights groups amid wider budget reductions (EUobserver)
→Update (29.09.2026): News: MEPs back €47 billion in new Erasmus funding as frugal states seek EU budget cuts (EUobserver)
→Update (29.09.2026): Commentary: EU budget cuts risk hurting member states’ own regions (EUobserver)
→Update (29.09.2026): News: EU leaders battle over budget as Parliament prepares resistance (Rapporteur)
→Update (25.09.2026): News: 12 countries oppose French push for EU defence preference (Euractiv)
→Update (23.09.2026): News: EU governments consider cutting development aid by up to 40 percent (EUobserver)
→Update (23.09.2026): News: Greece proposes EU-wide telecoms levy to fund budget and high-tech investment (Euractiv)
→Update (22.09.2026): News: France opposes cuts to foreign aid in next EU budget (POLITICO)
→Update (22.09.2026): News: Results of the General Affairs Council (Irish EU Presidency)
→Update (22.09.2026): News: France opposes cuts to foreign aid in next EU budget (POLITICO)
→Update (22.09.2026): News: Germany rejects Costa’s push for new EU budget taxes (POLITICO)
→Update (22.09.2026): News: EU ministers meet in Brussels for General Affairs Council (Council of the EU)
→Update (21.09.2026): Analysis: EU budget could strengthen rule of law safeguards but member states may blunt reforms (CER)
→Update (21.09.2026): News: Costa says EU budget needs new taxes governments are not already raising (POLITICO)
→Update (18.09.2026): News: Germany and Spain go head-to-head in EU budget fight (POLITICO)
→Update (17.09.2026): News: MEPs deadlocked over CAP’s place in next EU budget (Euractiv)
→Update (15.09.2026): News: Metsola urges Europe’s political centre to hold against extremes (Euractiv)
→Update (14.09.2026): News: EU plans cuts to staff and salaries in next long-term budget (POLITICO)
→Update (14.09.2026): News: EU countries split over scale of long-term budget cuts (Euractiv)
→Update (09.09.2026): News: Germany calls for hundreds of billions in EU budget cuts (Reuters)
→Update (09.09.2026): News: Costa says new EU taxes would reduce national contributions (POLITICO)
→Update (08.09.2026): News: France backs business tax to fund EU budget (Euractiv)
→Update (07.09.2026): News: Le Pen backs tobacco retailers against EU tax hikes (Euractiv)
→Update (07.09.2026): News: Ireland secures EU tax deal on carbon imports and e-waste (POLITICO)
→Update (04.09.2026): News: Spain urges EU climate adaptation fund and binding targets (Reuters)
→Update (04.09.2026): Commentary: EU budget could loosen China’s grip on critical raw materials (Euronews)
→Update (03.09.2026): News: EU budget negotiators criticise frugal states over cuts (EUobserver)
→Update (03.09.2026): Interview: Lithuania says eastern flank needs must shape EU budget (Euractiv)
→Update (02.09.2026): News: Spain worried by EU budget debate (Euractiv)
→Update (02.09.2026): News: EU budget camps remain deadlocked (EUobserver)
→Update (31.08.2026): News: Ireland seeks to break EU budget deadlock (POLITICO)
→Update (27.08.2026): Europe’s defence promise meets budget reality (ECFR)
→Quick Brief:
→Germany, Denmark, the Netherlands, Austria, Finland and Sweden want cuts of several hundred billion euros
→The European Commission has proposed a nearly €2 trillion seven-year budget for 2028–2034
→The six still want priority spending on defence, competitiveness, migration and European sovereignty
→They reject new joint EU borrowing and demand cuts across spending areas as national budgets face consolidation
→Sources: Euractiv, Reuters, Council of the EU
→Transparency Note: Use of AI
·Security·Technology and Digital Policy·AI·China·European Governance·European Union·Strategic Autonomy·USA
·Security·Technology and Digital Policy·AI·China·European Governance·European Union·Strategic Autonomy·USA
How should the EU handle AI? Mistral CEO Arthur Mensch rejects AI “doom” scenarios ↗︎
While the EU wants to listen to AI tech bosses like Amodei, Altman, and Musk to slow AI progress, Trump stresses the need to keep pace in the AI race with China.
→Update (04.10.2026): Interview: Mistral CEO Arthur Mensch rejects AI “doom” scenarios and urges Europe to invest in its own AI capabilities to safeguard economic and technological sovereignty (SZ)
→Update (01.10.2026): News: Researchers warn AI chatbots expose sensitive user data to advertisers (EUobserver)
→Update (30.09.2026): Commentary: AI’s future promises distract from the damage it is causing now (EUobserver)
→Update (29.09.2026): News: EU vows to keep pushing for global AI safety rules despite Trump opposition (POLITICO)
→Update (29.09.2026): News: AI executives propose ‘morally binding constitution’ for artificial intelligence (POLITICO)
→Update (29.09.2026): Interview: Ukraine wants Europe to use it as an AI sandbox (Euronews)
→Update (29.09.2026): Commentary: Europe shouldn’t bet its AI future on big data centres (Rapporteur)
→Update (24.09.2026): News: EU AI adviser urges focus on productivity and economic gains from AI (POLITICO)
→Update (23.09.2026): Commentary: AI panic is setting in before the crisis has even begun (Le Monde)
→Update (21.09.2026): News: 22 countries back call to keep AI under human control (POLITICO)
→Update (21.09.2026): News: OECD chief says Europe cannot afford to miss AI transformation (Euronews)
→Update (19.09.2026): Analysis: Ten days of upheaval changed the course of AI (Reuters)
→Update (17.09.2026): News: King Charles urges AI leaders to protect humanity (Reuters)
→Update (17.09.2026): Analysis: Can EU really slow frontier AI development? (Euronews)
→Update (16.09.2026): News: Von der Leyen calls for pacing frontier AI models (Euronews)
→Update (15.09.2026): Commentary: Pope, Sanders and Bannon hand Brussels mandate to rein in AI (EUobserver)
→Further Sources (August 2026):
→David Wallace-Wells and Natasha Sarin, A.I. Hype Is Running Into Reality: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/12/opinion/ai-bubble-economy-crash.html
→It May Be Time to Freak Out About AI: https://www.theringer.com/podcasts/plain-english-with-derek-thompson/2026/08/14/it-may-be-time-to-freak-out-about-ai
→It May Be Time to Panic About AI: https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/2026/08/openai-hacks-panic/688264/
→One of China’s Most Powerful AI Models Has Also Escaped Containment: https://www.wired.com/story/moonshot-kimi-k3-ai-model-escape-sandbox
→The 'Breaking' News: The OpenAI–Hugging Face Incident - A Technical Reconstruction and Its Implications for AI: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=87DyyMV0kCYFurther Sources (2024):Gen-AI: Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Work: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/staff-discussion-notes/issues/2024/01/14/gen-ai-artificial-intelligence-and-the-future-of-work-542379
·National Politics·AfD·Firewall·Saxony-Anhalt·State Elections
·National Politics·AfD·Firewall·Saxony-Anhalt·State Elections
AfD Wins Historic State Victory ↗︎
The AfD has won a historic victory in Saxony-Anhalt, dramatically shifting the political balance in eastern Germany while falling short of the majority needed to govern alone.
→Update (06.10.2026): News: AfD seeks Saxony-Anhalt parliament presidency as BSW support could secure majority (Euronews)
→Update (10.09.2026): Commentary: Saxony-Anhalt election strengthens Russia and East German nostalgia (Euractiv)
→Update (10.09.2026): Commentary: AfD victory could amplify Euroscepticism in France (Le Monde)
→Update (09.09.2026): News: Merz goes on offensive against AfD after Saxony-Anhalt defeat (Euractiv)
→Update (09.09.2026): News: Merz calls AfD’s anti-migration policy “ethnic cleansing” (Reuters)
→Update (09.09.2026): Analysis: SPD rebels against Merz after far-right rout (POLITICO)
→Update (08.09.2026): Analysis: Merz’s political crisis threatens Germany’s leadership in Europe (ECFR)
→Update (08.09.2026): Analysis: AfD victory raises concerns in Poland over German military rearming (POLITICO)
→Update (08.09.2026): Analysis: Germany debates whether to ban the AfD (EUobserver)
→Update (08.09.2026): Analysis: Merz appears to have no plan against AfD (POLITICO)
→Update (07.09.2026): Interview: Roma rights defender warns AfD victory normalises hatred of minorities (EUobserver)
→Update (07.09.2026): Analysis: AfD explores paths to govern Saxony-Anhalt (Deutsche Welle)
→Update (07.09.2026): Commentary: AfD landslide reshapes German politics (La Vanguardia)
→Update (06.09.2026): Analysis: AfD victory sends a warning to Europe (Svenska Dagbladet)
→Update (06.09.2026): Commentary: AfD rule could put Germany’s economy to the test (Deutsche Welle)
→Update (06.09.2026): Analysis: Will AfD remain this radical after its victory? (Ilta-Sanomat)
→Update (06.09.2026): Analysis: AfD victory raises doubts over Merz as chancellor (DER SPIEGEL)
→Update (06.09.2026): Analysis: Saxony-Anhalt could end Germany’s firewall against AfD (G4Media)
→Update (06.09.2026): Commentary: AfD surge is a victory for Russia (The Telegraph)
→Quick Brief:
→The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) won 43.8%, its strongest result in any German state election and more than double its 2021 share
→Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s CDU fell to 17.2%, losing more than half its previous support after governing Saxony-Anhalt since 2002
→Despite its victory, the AfD secured 39 of 83 seats, three short of an absolute majority. Other established parties have ruled out governing with it
→The result puts Germany’s political “firewall” against cooperation with the AfD under new pressure, as the remaining parties face a difficult path to forming a government without it
→Sources: Euractiv, Reuters, ZDF
→Transparency Note: Use of AI
·Economic Policy·Inside Europe·Housing Crisis·Maricarmen Abascal·Matrid·Pedro Sánchez·Protests·Spain
·Economic Policy·Inside Europe·Housing Crisis·Maricarmen Abascal·Matrid·Pedro Sánchez·Protests·Spain
Spanish PM Sánchez Calls for Snap Elections for 29 November after Losing Key Housing Crisis Vote ↗︎
An 87-year-old Madrid pensioner whose eviction triggered protests can return to her longtime home, as her case adds pressure on Spain’s government to address the country’s wider housing crisis.
→Update (06.10.2026): Analysis: Spanish election threatens political balance in Brussels as Sánchez’s Socialists face potential losses (POLITICO)
→Update (05.10.2026): Analysis: Sánchez bets on housing agenda to keep far right out of government in Spain’s snap election (EUobserver)
→Update (05.10.2026): News: Sánchez calls snap Spanish election for November 29 (POLITICO)
→Update (03.10.2026): News: Tens of thousands protest across Spain over deepening housing crisis (The Guardian)
→Update (02.10.2026): News: Sánchez loses key housing crisis vote after eviction of 87-year-old woman (BBC)
→Update (30.09.2026): Podcast: Did Spain’s government address protesters’ demands on housing? (EUobserver)
→Update (29.09.2026): News: Spain moves to stem housing protests (Rapporteur)
→Quick Brief:
→Maricarmen Abascal was evicted on 23 September from the Madrid apartment where she had lived for more than 70 years, turning her case into a symbol of Spain’s housing crisis
→The eviction prompted protests in Madrid, amid wider concerns over rising rents and access to affordable housing
→The property owner has agreed to let Abascal return under a new eight-year rental contract, with rent capped at 30% of her net income. She still has to approve the agreement formally
→Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez explicitly referred to Maricarmen’s case while calling for parliamentary support for new housing measures aimed at strengthening tenant protection and addressing Spain’s housing crisis
→Sources: BBC, Reuters, El País
→Transparency Note: Use of AI
·China·Economic Policy·Security·Competiveness·Deficit·European Commission·Trade
·China·Economic Policy·Security·Competiveness·Deficit·European Commission·Trade
EU Trade Balance Turns Negative, a Trade War with China possible? ↗︎
Update (06.10.2026): News: EU trade chief heads to China with low expectations(EUobserver), Rapporteur) Update (05.10.2026): News: Merz and…
→Update (06.10.2026): News: EU trade chief heads to China with low expectations(EUobserver), Rapporteur)
→Update (05.10.2026): News: Merz and Macron push tougher EU trade response to China (POLITICO)
→Update (04.10.2026): News: Britain expected to impose tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (Reuters)
→Update (01.10.2026): Commentary: EU unity and leverage will determine whether it can stand up to China on trade (Carnegie Europe)
→Update (30.09.2026): News: China vows response if EU introduces measures targeting Chinese trade (Reuters)
→Update (29.09.2026): News: EU eyes tariffs on Chinese goods with new trade weapon (Rapporteur)
→Update (28.09.2026): Analysis: EU-China trade showdown increasingly appears inevitable (Internationale Politik Quarterly)
→Update (18.09.2026): News: Beijing urges EU to weaken ‘Made in Europe’ industrial bill (EUobserver)
→Update (17.09.2026): Analysis: EU firms redesign supply chains amid geopolitical risks (EIB)
→Update (17.09.2026): News: EU asks China to voluntarily limit hybrid car exports (Financial Times)
→Update (16.09.2026): News: Von der Leyen warns EU-China trade deficit has hit ‘tipping point’ (POLITICO)
→Update (15.09.2026): Analysis: European businesses caught between US-China trade and tech war (POLITICO)
→Update (11.09.2026): News from China: Chinese experts warn EU protectionism cannot fix industrial woes (Global Times)
→Update (09.09.2026): News: EU spirits exports squeezed by US-China trade tensions (Euractiv)
→Update (08.09.2026): News: EU warns China to buy more European goods or risk trade war (Euractiv)
→Update (08.09.2026): News: China’s exports accelerate on autos and high-tech goods (Euronews)
→Update (07.09.2026): News: Commission proposes anti-China EU procurement rules (Euractiv)
→Update (02.09.2026): Interview: Šefčovič warns China of harsher measures by October (YouTube)
→Update (02.09.2026): News: Think tank urges UK-EU cooperation against China (POLITICO)
→Update (01.09.2026): Analysis: EU split over courting Chinese factories (EUobserver)
→Update (31.08.2026): News: EU seeks to curb Chinese exports (POLITICO)
→Update (31.08.2026): Commentary from China: Europe risks miscalculating a trade war with China (Global Times)
→Update (31.08.2026): News: Hoekstra says Beijing weaponised clean-tech dominance (Euractiv)
→Update (31.08.2026): Interview: Hoekstra says China isn’t playing by trade rules (YouTube)
→Update (27.08.2026): Dutch think tank urges tougher China tariffs (EUobserver)
→Update (27.08.2026): Von der Leyen warns China on trade (Euractiv)
→Quick Brief:
→The EU recorded a €21.8 billion goods deficit in Q2 (April–June) 2026, after a €6.7 billion surplus in Q1 (January–March)
→The main driver was energy: the deficit in energy products widened to €101.1 billion
→Imports rose by €63.4 billion, considerably more than the €34.9 billion increase in exports
→The EU’s trade deficit with China reached €103.3 billion in Q2, adding to concerns over European industrial competitiveness
→Sources: Eurostat, Euractiv
→Transparency Note: Use of AI
·Education Policy·Inside Europe·Édouard Geffray·Fires·France·Property Damage·Riot Police·Schools·Student Protests·Unrest
·Education Policy·Inside Europe·Édouard Geffray·Fires·France·Property Damage·Riot Police·Schools·Student Protests·Unrest
French Student Protests Escalate Nationwide ↗︎
High school protests that began near Paris in late September have spread across France, as demands for better education conditions increasingly collide with violence and a tougher government response.
→Update (06.10.2026): News: France braces for nationwide school blockades and street protests (Reuters)
→Update (06.10.2026): News: Mélenchon doubles down on support for French student protests despite violent clashes (POLITICO)
→Update (05.10.2026): News: French Human Rights League warns police response to school protests reflects broader erosion of rule of law (RFI)
→Update (05.10.2026): News: Teenager loses hand during confrontation between French school protesters and police (BBC)
→Update (03.10.2026): News: French students call for ‘act three’ as school protests seek to maintain momentum (RFI)
→Update (03.10.2026): News: Protests disrupt more than 730 French schools as students call for new rallies (RFI)
→Update (02.10.2026): Interview: Student leader defends France’s school protests against claims of political manipulation (RadioFrance)
→Quick Brief:
→Students are demanding more teachers and funding, smaller classes and better school buildings, while also raising concerns about the university admissions system Parcoursup
→More than 1,000 of France’s roughly 3,700 high schools were affected by actions on 1 October, while around 400 were closed the following day
→Clashes, fires and property damage have accompanied parts of the movement, prompting the government to deploy specialist riot police
→The government says the protests have partly shifted into “urban violence.” Education Minister Édouard Geffray is meeting student and parent representatives, while authorities seek to contain the unrest
→Sources: Le Monde, BBC News
→Transparency Note: Use of AI
·Russia·Security·War in Ukraine·Civil Society·European Union·Kremlin·Levada-Center·Media·Russia‘s invasion
·Russia·Security·War in Ukraine·Civil Society·European Union·Kremlin·Levada-Center·Media·Russia‘s invasion
Russians between Resignation and Hope towards Europe ↗︎
An ECFR study suggests resignation rather than enthusiasm shapes participants’ attitudes towards Russia’s war against Ukraine, while hostility towards Europe coexists with hopes for renewed ties.
→Published on 1 October, the study draws on 14 Levada-Center focus groups held in four Russian cities between April and August 2026, as well as opinion surveys. The groups are not nationally representative
→Participants generally expect Russia to prevail but struggle to define victory. Economic anxiety and war fatigue have not translated into readiness to challenge the Kremlin
→Europe increasingly replaces the US as the main perceived adversary. Participants rarely connect European opposition to Russia’s invasion, yet many expect relations with Europe eventually to improve
→The authors urge Europe to combine security measures with support for independent Russian-language media, civil society and carefully safeguarded contacts, avoiding blanket condemnation of all Russians
→Sources: ECFR - Bewitched sleep: Russians’ views on Ukraine and the world
→Transparency Note: Use of AI
·Europe in the world·Inside Europe·UK·antisemitism·Green Party·Israel·Jewish·Palestine·Racism·Zack Polanski·Zionism
·Europe in the world·Inside Europe·UK·antisemitism·Green Party·Israel·Jewish·Palestine·Racism·Zack Polanski·Zionism
UK: Israel Bars Polanski After Zionism Vote ↗︎
Israel has barred Green Party leader Zack Polanski from entry after his party adopted a motion equating Zionism with racism, triggering internal divisions and criticism from Jewish organisations.
→Update (06.10.2026): News: EU Greens leadership candidates reject UK party’s ‘Zionism is racism’ stance (Rapporteur)
→Quick Brief:
→On 4 October, members of the Green Party of England and Wales approved the motion by 1,022 votes to 813 at their Brighton conference
→The policy declares the party anti-Zionist and supports a single democratic state across historic Palestine, alongside an arms embargo against Israel
→Polanski, who is Jewish, did not participate in the vote. Amendments he supported were rejected, while several senior Greens opposed the motion
→Israel’s foreign ministry condemned the resolution as antisemitic and announced the entry ban. The Greens maintain that their policy targets a political ideology, not Jewish identity, and reaffirm their opposition to racism
→Sources: Green Party, BBC News, Sky News
→Transparency Note: Use of AI
·Geopolitics·Inside Europe·Western Balkans·Ballot Scanners·Bosnia·Elections·EU Integration·European Union·Milorad Dodik·Republika Srpska·Russia·Serbia·SNSD
·Geopolitics·Inside Europe·Western Balkans·Ballot Scanners·Bosnia·Elections·EU Integration·European Union·Milorad Dodik·Republika Srpska·Russia·Serbia·SNSD
Bosnia Election Tests Democratic Resilience ↗︎
Bosnia and Herzegovina’s general election on 4 October will test the country’s democratic resilience as new voting technology meets persistent ethnic divisions, separatist politics and competing European and Russian influence.
→Update (05.10.2026): Analysis: Putin and Vučić dominate Bosnia election as EU influence fades (EUobserver)
→Update (04.10.2026): News: Bosniaks, Serbs and Croats vote for rival leaderships as Bosnia’s election tests political stability and EU accession (Reuters)
→Quick Brief:
→More than 3.4 million voters will elect the three-member Presidency, state parliament and institutions of the country’s two entities
→Biometric voter identification and ballot scanners will be used nationwide for the first time, aiming to reduce electoral manipulation
→Milorad Dodik cannot hold public office but remains influential as leader of the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD), the dominant Bosnian Serb party in Republika Srpska
→The election also has a geopolitical dimension: the EU’s integration agenda competes with growing Russian influence, while neighbouring Serbia retains close political ties with Republika Srpska
→Sources: CEC BiH, OSCE, EU Delegation, Associated Press
→Transparency Note: Use of AI
·National Politics·Far RIght·Government crisis
·National Politics·Far RIght·Government crisis
After Romanian Government Collapse – Romania’s political deadlock ↗︎
Romania’s government crisis highlights rising concerns in the EU about stability, reform commitments, and the country’s ability to secure vital EU funding while staying aligned with its pro-Western path.
→Update (05.10.2026): News: Luca Niculescu becomes Romania’s fourth prime ministerial candidate in five months (POLITICO)
→Update (30.09.2026): News: Romanian political crisis deepens as parliament rejects PM nominee Siegfried Mureșan (POLITICO)
→Update (23.09.2026): News: Romania’s political deadlock risks handing power to far right, PM nominee warns (POLITICO)
→Update (June 22, 2026): Romanian parliament rejects PM nominee, deepening political crisis (Euractiv)
→May 05, 2026:
→Bolojan as PM was removed by no-confidence vote, concerning his austerity measures
→Social Democrats teamed up with the far right to oust him
→George Simion, the far right leader, is further gaining influence
→Instability risks EU funding, though President Nicușor Dan backs a pro-West path
→Source: Politico
·Europe in the world·Geopolitics·Latin America·Brazil·BRICS·European Union·Flávio Bolsonaro·Jair Bolsonaro·Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva·Presidential elections·Strategic Autonomy·USA
·Europe in the world·Geopolitics·Latin America·Brazil·BRICS·European Union·Flávio Bolsonaro·Jair Bolsonaro·Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva·Presidential elections·Strategic Autonomy·USA
Brazil Presidential Election: Flávio Bolsonaro emerged in pole position with 47 Percent from a first round of voting Sunday ↗︎
Brazil votes on 4 October in a presidential election between competing political and foreign-policy visions, with implications for the country’s relations with Europe, the United States, China and BRICS.
→Update (05.10.2026): Analysis: Bolsonaro Jr.’s advance against Lula raises EU concerns over Brazil-Mercosur alliance (EUobserver)
→Update (04.10.2026): News: Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula as Brazil heads to a runoff (POLITICO)
→Update (03.10.2026): Analysis: Brazil’s cliffhanger election could cost EU a key Latin American ally (EUobserver)
→Quick Brief:
→President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva faces Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, as the two leading candidates in a field of 12. A runoff will follow on 25 October if no candidate wins a majority
→Lula has pursued strategic autonomy, maintaining relations with Europe and China while strengthening Brazil’s role in BRICS and the Global South
→Bolsonaro represents a different direction, with his campaign associated with closer political alignment with Donald Trump’s United States and the wider conservative movement
→For Europe, the election could shape relations with Latin America’s largest economy, including cooperation on trade, climate and the EU-Mercosur partnership, as Brazil navigates competition between Washington and Beijing
→Sources: Brazilian Electoral Court (TSE), Reuters, POLITICO Europe
→Transparency Note: Use of AI
·International Right·National Politics·Security·Ukraine·War in Ukraine·24 February 2022·Diplomacy·Hard Winter·Russia·USA
·International Right·National Politics·Security·Ukraine·War in Ukraine·24 February 2022·Diplomacy·Hard Winter·Russia·USA
Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine ↗︎
More than four years after Russia launched its full-scale invasion, Ukraine continues to resist as the war has evolved from Moscow’s failed attempt at a rapid victory into a prolonged conflict with no political settlement in sight.
→Update (05.10.2026): Analysis: Russian drone strike injures Moldovan citizen for first time at Ukraine-Moldova border crossing (ISW)
→Update (04.10.2026): News: Kyiv bridge hit during German Chancellor’s snap visit (Rapporteur)
→Update (04.10.2026): Interview: EU envoy in Kyiv urges stronger air defences and hybrid war response, saying Putin ‘understands only strength’ (EUobserver)
→Update (03.10.2026): Analysis: Russia strikes Kyiv bridge to disrupt transport, economy and civilian life (ISW)
→Update (02.10.2026): Analysis: Ukraine deploys domestically produced FP-7 ballistic missile for first time (EUobserver)
→Update (02.10.2026): Analysis: Putin portrays European responses to Russian threats as aggression (ISW)
→Update (02.10.2026): Analysis: Russia governs occupied Oleshky through humanitarian decline (ISW)
→Update (30.09.2026): Analysis: Russia begins winter campaign targeting Ukraine’s energy security (ISW)
→Update (30.09.2026): Analysis: Ukraine’s war chest is running low at a critical moment (POLITICO)
→Update (30.09.2026): News: Russian air strikes kill three and injure seven in and around Kyiv (Reuters, MarketScreener)
→Update (29.09.2026): Analysis: Russian drone strikes Kyiv research institute and explodes near EU embassy (EUobserver)
→Update (29.09.2026): News: Zelenskyy says North Korea prepares to deploy another 10,000 troops to Russia (Reuters)
→Update (28.09.2026): News: Ukraine regains territory and captures POWs in frontline push (POLITICO)
→Update (28.09.2026): Analysis: Ukraine’s Operation Vivaldi uses deception to liberate five settlements north of Lyman (ISW)
→Update (28.09.2026): News: Kremlin says Ukraine is ‘paying the price’ for attacks on Russia (Reuters)
→Update (26.09.2026): Analysis: Ukraine’s new counteroffensive tactics could help break positional warfare and restore tactical maneuver (ISW)
→Update (25.09.2026): Analysis: Russia intensifies strikes on Ukraine’s data centres and telecommunications infrastructure (ISW)
→Update (24.09.2026): News: Russian missile attack on Kyiv kills civilians and damages residential areas (Reuters)
→Update (23.09.2026): Analysis: Russian tank survives 40 drone strikes, suggesting mechanised warfare could make comeback (EUobserver)
→Update (23.09.2026): Analysis: Kremlin rejects proposed energy ceasefire and reiterates maximalist war demands (ISW)
→Update (23.09.2026): Analysis: Kremlin uses sham elections to manufacture legitimacy in occupied Ukraine (ISW)
→Update (22.09.2026): News: Ukraine races to counter new jet-powered Russian drones (BBC)
→Update (22.09.2026): Analysis: Russian Ministry of Defense falsely claims encirclement of Dobropillya as part of cognitive warfare campaign (ISW)
→Update (22.09.2026): Analysis: Western tech helps funnel foreign recruits into Russia’s war (POLITICO)
→Update (21.09.2026): Analysis: Ukraine’s largest Moscow air raid overwhelms defences and hits key oil refinery (EUobserver)
→Update (20.09.2026): Analysis: Russia secretly plans to massively expand kamikaze drone production (POLITICO)
→Update (20.09.2026): News: Ukrainian drones hit Moscow oil refinery, killing two (Reuters)
→Update (19.09.2026): Analysis: Russian Ministry of Defense exaggerates battlefield gains ahead of UN General Assembly (ISW)
→Update (18.09.2026): Analysis: Tusk reveals classified estimates of Ukrainian battlefield casualties (EUobserver)
→Update (18.09.2026): Analysis: Kremlin denies post-election mobilization amid fears of public backlash (ISW)
→Update (18.09.2026): Podcast: Ukraine faces mounting pressure ahead of wartime winter (ECFR)
→Update (17.09.2026): Analysis: Russia pushes to capture Dobropillia before autumn conditions worsen (EUobserver)
→Update (17.09.2026): Analysis: Russia continues deporting Ukrainian female political prisoners to distant penal colonies (ISW)
→Update (17.09.2026): News: Russia targets passenger trains to undermine Ukraine’s economy and morale (POLITICO)
→Update (16.09.2026): Analysis: Ukrainian forces reportedly advance beyond Zherebets River (EUobserver)
→Update (16.09.2026): Analysis: Putin frames Duma elections as referendum on Ukraine war (ISW)
→Update (15.09.2026): Analysis: Ukraine hits record number of Russian refineries as Trump pushes energy ceasefire (EUobserver)
→Update (15.09.2026): Analysis: Ukraine’s Operation Vivaldi disrupts Russia’s Fortress Belt encirclement (ISW)
→Update (14.09.2026): Analysis: Ukraine races to counter Russia’s jet-powered drones (POLITICO)
→Update (14.09.2026): Analysis: Zelensky reiterates readiness for mutual energy strikes moratorium (ISW)
→Update (13.09.2026): Analysis: Russian strikes near Polish border signal growing escalation (ISW)
→Update (12.09.2026): Analysis: Ukraine disrupts Russia’s Donbas offensive plans (ISW)
→Update (13.09.2026): Analysis: Anthropic AI joins Ukraine war after Russian exploitation (EUobserver)
→Update (11.09.2026): Analysis: Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment (ISW)
→Update (10.09.2026): Analysis: Russia spent over €110bn on Ukraine war so far in 2026 (EUobserver)
→Update (10.09.2026): Analysis: Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment (ISW)
→Update (10.09.2026): Analysis: Russian Occupation Update (ISW)
→Update (10.09.2026): Analysis: Zelenskyy gambles on pressure to force Putin into peace talks (POLITICO)
→Update (09.09.2026): Analysis: Russia’s claimed Kharkiv encirclement lacks evidence (EUobserver)
→Update (09.09.2026): News: Zelenskyy’s plane nearly hit by drone en route to Oslo (Euronews)
→Quick Brief:
→Russia launched its full-scale invasion on 24 February 2022, expecting rapid military gains, but its attempt to seize Kyiv failed as Ukrainian forces resisted
→The failed initial offensive developed into a long war of attrition, with Russia occupying Ukrainian territory while Ukraine continues to defend itself and strike Russian military and economic targets
→Winter has repeatedly intensified pressure on civilians: Russia has systematically targeted Ukraine’s electricity and heating infrastructure, causing widespread outages and disruption
→Diplomacy has not ended the war: renewed US-led efforts have so far failed to bridge fundamental differences between Moscow and Kyiv, while Russian military operations continue
→Sources: UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine, Reuters, Associated Press
→Transparency Note: Use of AI
