Marine Le Pen’s decade-long campaign to lead France may have just met its most serious, and perhaps final, obstacle. On Monday, a Paris court found the far-right leader guilty of embezzling European Parliament funds and handed down a five-year ban on holding public office. While Le Pen plans to appeal the ruling, the ban takes immediate effect, likely ruling her out of the 2027 presidential race and shaking the foundations of the far-right National Rally party she has long dominated, as well as French and European politics.
The conviction stems from a sprawling case involving 24 other party officials, all accused of misusing over €4 million in EU funds between 2004 and 2016. Prosecutors argued that Le Pen and her colleagues paid party staff using European parliamentary budgets earmarked for legislative work in Brussels and Strasbourg, staff who, in many cases, did not appear to do any such work. Le Pen was found personally responsible for embezzling €474,000 during her time as a Member of the European Parliament.
The court sentenced her to four years in prison, two suspended and two to be served under house arrest with electronic monitoring. More damaging in political terms, however, is the judges’ decision to immediately enforce a five-year ineligibility from running for office, an extraordinary move in French legal practice, where such sanctions are typically postponed until the appeals process concludes.
That Le Pen faces this penalty at a moment of peak popularity compounds the drama. Recent polls placed her within striking distance of the Élysée Palace in 2027, buoyed by years of rebranding efforts aimed at softening the image of her party, once synonymous with the xenophobia of her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen. Under her leadership, the National Front became the National Rally, her father was expelled, and the party gained a solid parliamentary foothold. 
But the court found Le Pen at the center of a “system” of misappropriation, delivering the harshest sentence among the 25 defendants. The National Rally was also found guilty and fined €2 million, a sum that could be reduced if the party refrains from repeating the offense. Nonetheless, the political cost may be even higher.
Le Pen’s legal team has already announced plans to appeal, a process that could take months or even years. But unlike her prison sentence or the €100,000 fine she faces, the court ruled that her disqualification from public office stands effective immediately.
The ruling has sent shockwaves across the French political spectrum and beyond. Jordan Bardella, the 29-year-old president of the National Rally and widely considered Le Pen’s political heir, denounced the decision as “a dictatorship of judges.” In an online petition titled “Let’s Save Democracy, Let’s Support Marine”, Bardella called for a “peaceful mobilisation” and accused the judiciary of waging a political war that her opponents could not win at the ballot box.
Reactions from Europe’s far-right have followed a similar script. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini denounced the ruling before Le Pen’s sentence was even formally announced. The Kremlin weighed in as well, criticizing what it called “a violation of democratic norms”. And yet, the ruling has also stirred unease among centrists. French Justice Minister Gérald Darmanin previously stated that it would be “deeply shocking” if Le Pen were barred from running, arguing she should be defeated democratically, not judicially.
Le Pen’s downfall, if the ruling holds, opens the door for Bardella to become the far-right’s standard-bearer in 2027. Charismatic and politically savvy, Bardella has risen quickly through the party’s ranks, gaining popularity particularly among younger voters. Yet internal party dissent has surfaced in recent months, with some questioning whether he can match Le Pen’s electoral appeal.
Financially, the party may also feel the pinch. While it has benefited from state funding linked to strong recent electoral performances, it still faces a complex financial history, including loans from Russian banks and ongoing deficits. The latest fine and the reputational blow from the trial could complicate its position ahead of crucial campaigns.
For now, Le Pen retains her parliamentary seat, which is not affected by the ruling. But her broader political ambitions, carefully cultivated over years of image management and strategic moderation, are in serious jeopardy.
Should her appeal fail, the 2027 presidential election will mark the first in over a decade without a Le Pen on the ballot. Whether that absence benefits centrist forces or fragments the far-right remains uncertain, but what is clear is that France’s political landscape and by extension its influence in Europe has entered uncharted territory.
